Reopening The Economy

This commentary touches on the following subjects.: Reopening the Economy C19 Infections, Hospitalizations, Deaths Vaccine Development Monetary Policy and Fiscal Stimulus The Bifurcated Stock Market It has been 84 days since the U.S. stock market started the C19 market sell-off.  During that time a great deal of new information has come forth to help us […]

Market Update, Monday the 30th

First, some good news in the number of new cases. The John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center reported a drop in the total number of daily cases from 67.4k cases on Friday to 59.4k on Saturday. We now know that President Trump has extended the social distancing guidelines in the U.S. until the end of April. The newest […]

The Coronavirus Stock Market Panic

Stock markets continue to be under pressure today after the U.S. announced additional travel restrictions with Europe. The number of confirmed cases continues to be very small, the health impact minimal and the death rate tiny according to the John Hopkins Coronavirus resource center. It appears this will become a very manageable situation. We need […]

The Price of Oil and the Stock Market

Another impactful development pushing the price of stocks down Monday morning was the recent surprise drop in oil prices.  Crude oil saw its price decline by 24% on Monday.  That is a massive move for the worlds most demanded commodity.  On balance, lower prices will be good for the global economy.  However, price shocks are […]

COVID-19 and the Stock Market

Stock markets are in a tailspin this morning due to COVID-19 concerns. The stock market has dealt with many epidemics (SARS, MERS, Bird Flu, Ebola, etc.) in the past few decades none of which have led to a sustained market decline. Here is a look at the historical market returns 6 & 12-months after the occurrence of […]

Coronavirus & U.S. Stocks

Monday’s market selling was aggressive, closing near the day’s lows after trying to rally earlier in the trading session.  Tuesday’s market open was weak and deteriorated quickly delivering another day of big declines. This is typical behavior, rapid declines after a long series of advances.  Investors are dealing with the combination of elevated stock valuations […]

REPO Market Update

Back in September the market received a warning from the REPO market where interest rates unexpectedly spiked higher.  Before describing what may be interfering with REPO market operations, I want to point out that signals from the bond market, while important, generally represent a time horizon of a year or more.  Unlike other technical, fundamental, […]

Collateral Damage

I have become aware of new information about what may be preventing the REPO market from operating properly.  Despite emergency Fed intervention, the REPO market continues to have trouble meeting cash demands.  It may not be a liquidity problem after all, it appears to be a problem with collateral. The following example from Fed Governor […]

Dightman Capital – Q4 Outlook

U.S. stocks have experienced a strong recovery in 2019 but the increase in volatility the last several months is a concern.  If stock indexes can hold current gains, they will deliver solid double-digit returns for the year despite sputtering trade progress with China and political turmoil in Washington DC.  While political developments can lead to […]

A Divided Market

There are clearly opposite views on the market right now.  After a fabulous day for all three indexes yesterday, not to mention the performance of many leading stocks, some commentators remain committed to the idea we are headed for a recession. A week ago, recession fears were plastered on the front pages of all the […]