Reopening The Economy

This commentary touches on the following subjects.: Reopening the Economy C19 Infections, Hospitalizations, Deaths Vaccine Development Monetary Policy and Fiscal Stimulus The Bifurcated Stock Market It has been 84 days since the U.S. stock market started the C19 market sell-off.  During that time a great deal of new information has come forth to help us […]

REPO Market Update

Back in September the market received a warning from the REPO market where interest rates unexpectedly spiked higher.  Before describing what may be interfering with REPO market operations, I want to point out that signals from the bond market, while important, generally represent a time horizon of a year or more.  Unlike other technical, fundamental, […]

Collateral Damage

I have become aware of new information about what may be preventing the REPO market from operating properly.  Despite emergency Fed intervention, the REPO market continues to have trouble meeting cash demands.  It may not be a liquidity problem after all, it appears to be a problem with collateral. The following example from Fed Governor […]

Dightman Capital – Q4 Outlook

U.S. stocks have experienced a strong recovery in 2019 but the increase in volatility the last several months is a concern.  If stock indexes can hold current gains, they will deliver solid double-digit returns for the year despite sputtering trade progress with China and political turmoil in Washington DC.  While political developments can lead to […]

A Divided Market

There are clearly opposite views on the market right now.  After a fabulous day for all three indexes yesterday, not to mention the performance of many leading stocks, some commentators remain committed to the idea we are headed for a recession. A week ago, recession fears were plastered on the front pages of all the […]

Q2 2019 Market & Economic Review

Volatility returned to the U.S. stock market during the second quarter of 2019.  By the end of May, broad U.S. stock indexes were below levels from the start of April.  The S&P 500 actually traded below its 200 day moving average before a rally kicked off in June which ultimately delivered gains for the quarter. […]

Q1 2019 Market & Economic Review

U.S. stocks experienced a strong rally in the first quarter of 2019.  The biggest performance driver came from the Federal Reserve pausing their interest hikes.  Between 2017 and 2018 the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate approximately 8 times and until recently expected to continue raising rates into 2019.  The sell-off in Q4 was largely […]

Stocks Turn Bearish

The investment environment continues to deteriorate despite the pickup in economic activity in the U.S. the last couple of years.  As the Big Four Indicators I highlighted recently show, the U.S. economy continues to move in the right direction. Despite the U.S. economy doing well, international economies are performing poorly with few catalysts outside of […]

Will Higher Interest Rates Derail Stocks?

Continued economic growth has led the Federal Reserve to raise the Fed Funds rate to 2.25%.  This is the biggest issue facing asset markets right now even though the rate remains well below levels that led to recessions twice during the last 18 years.  For that reason, I believe the Fed is going to be cautious […]

Trade Jabs & Big Tech Snafus

2018 has turned out to be a completely different investing environment from 2017. I have been reminded of debt market issues I thought I would not to have to address until 2019-20, beginning with interest rates. We remain in a low interest rate environment, well below levels we saw before both recessions we experienced earlier […]