Another round of volatility hit stocks this week, but current support levels remain, and volume has been tamer. The Nasdaq 100’s outperformance YTD remains intact suggesting tech investors are still committed to the sector.
It’s one thing to see stocks under pressure but the recent spike in LIBOR (the rate banks lend to each other overnight) was my focus this week. Fortunately, the banking system remains stable and the rise in LIBOR appears to be the result of an increase in demand from short-term U.S. government funding needs for deficit spending and U.S. corporations pulling offshore money from corporate bonds and putting it into cash for spending. While the spike in LIBOR signals caution, banks impacted by the higher rate are not flashing other warning signs.
For those familiar with the TED Spread, the difference between interest rates on Eurodollar Contracts and T-bills, we are still well below levels that signaled problems in the banking sector back in 2008.
On balance the market is evaluating several concurrent events; higher interest rates, chronic deficit spending and trade policy adjustments are center stage. The economy and corporate sales/earnings are in good shape, so the bias remains to the upside. If a nasty trade war does break out, then we could see more downside pressure on stocks and the economy; we are a long way from that environment and it will be interesting to see how far President Trump will push the Chinese. They have far more to lose then we do in a trade war, but I don’t think the president wants to derail the overall growth environment in the U.S.
There is no such thing as “free trade”. What President Trump is trying to do with trade overall is reduce the concessions we provide our global partners (and reduce outright theft). The goal of spreading wealth via trade rules is a noble one, but the principles that make our country the success it is are free for the adopting too.
You may have heard, today the Dropbox IPO started trading and delivered a gained of 35%. An active IPO market is a sign this market may have more upside. Leading stocks are also holding up well, which is promising.
So far markets are correcting for trade uncertainties following interest rate concerns earlier this year. As uncomfortable as it can be, it’s a healthy process and should allow stocks to resume their uptrend once trade matters are resolved.