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Market & Economic Brief

November 19, 2008

WORLD MARKETS
After attempting a rally earlier in the month, U.S. stocks broke recent support levels and established fresh lows.    Commodities and World REITs have also found new lows.  Many international stock markets are still maintaining previous support levels.  Intermediate term U.S. treasuries continue to rally in a flight to quality.  The near term bias has again turned negative for stocks.

WORLD ECONOMY
The weekly leading and monthly coincident indexes we follow continue to weaken, suggesting more trouble ahead for the U.S. economy.  Many European countries continue to report deteriorating economic conditions as well.  China reported a dip in October retail sales but consumer spending has held up better than many other parts of their economy.

INFLATION DATA
Producer costs fell a record 2.8% in October, led by a huge decline in energy prices.  Future inflation indicators we track also continue to decline.

U.S. RESIDENTIAL HOUSING
The Nat’l Association of Home Builders fell to its lowest level since 1985 in November.  Home prices declined in 4 out of 5 cities during Q3.  The FDIC has proposed using $24 bil. of the TARP funds to help stem foreclosures.  The leading home price index we track rose slightly for August (the latest data available).  Additional increases may signal a bottom in housing prices.